Recovery may be the word on many lips; but, not exclusively. A post recession evaluation may be premature. Indicators fail to show that we are not out of the woods. Rather they point to further continuation of what Alan Greenspan has called a financial crisis worse than any other, including the Great Depression. In spite of trillions pumped into the economy, bank lending continues a precipitous descent. Mass firings are on the menu again. Real estate prices continue their slide. No wonder, consumers are holding back on purchases. Looking forward we can ponder how to protect yourself if it happens again. What have we learnt so far from what we have experienced?
Prior to the Credit Crisis, consumer spending represented 72 percent of the economy. A consumer less recovery will not be sustainable. Reports have indicated that in the near future consumers may not resume their critical role. Consumers are credit poor with credit card and home equity loan debt continuing to drop. Consumers remain concerned about their job prospects and the plunging value of their homes, their largest source of investment. The weekly jobless claims rose again for the week ending February 20th. This is the highest level since November 2009. Meanwhile pension funds have had major losses, whether the fund is private or public.
There was another decline in new home sales for the month of January in 2010. The Government has backstopped Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Yet, the housing market continues its slide downhill. Mortgage defaults and foreclosures have climbed since the housing bubble burst three years ago. How time has flown. A shadow inventory hunts the market.
The foreclosures pose a problem for at risk home owners, their communities, the housing market and the overall economy. Problems are not diminishing. The loan modification programs are not working. A negligible number are being modified and even those have not given borrowers a meaningful break so that despite this borrowers have defaulted thereafter. The re-default rate drops considerably where lenders have written off some of the debt, yet for the most part they’ve been either unwilling or unable to do so. President Obama launched another initiative to avert foreclosures, offering 1.5 billion USD from the 700-billion USD Troubled Asset Relief Program to housing finance agencies in California and four other states where home prices have dropped by at least 20 percent. The prognosis is not hopeful given what is needed.
Freddie Mac was 26 billion USD poorer in 2009. Yet, Freddie announced more to come with a record 4 percent of borrowers behind on payments. Freddie and Fannie have already benefited from 111 USD support from the Government and are holding back the slowly falling market from a sharp fall with the vast majority of new loans they have supported in 2009. Freddie Mac announced recently that it might never repay what it owes.
At the same time, the latest report from First American CoreLogic revealed 11.3 million properties in negative equity. Adding those near this mar, k about one-third of all homes with a mortgage balance are underwater. Housing watchers have opined against this backdrop that there shall be no real recovery until job growth resumes.
In addition to the housing problems, commercial mortgages are being called the next shoe to drop. FDIC has revealed the number of troubled banks has risen in the fourth quarter of 2009 to 702. This is an increase of 27 percent from the third quarter of 2009. Junk debt of more than 600 billion USD due to mature between 2001 and 2014 increases the risk of corporate defaults, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts. Perhaps awaiting that, banks have posted their sharpest lending decline since 1942 in the year 2009. In short, we cannot yet be talking of a post recession period, as we are clearly not out of the woods
Ways to protect yourself if crisis returns
The best protection not misuse of home equity loans, credit cards and housing investments. With a financial cushion, prudent money management would have led to more stability under current stress conditions. Gold is becoming a safe haven and source of security reflecting worries about the global economy. Peter Munk of Barrick Mining has been quoted for pronouncing that people have lost their optimism and he could not see anything on the horizon to alter the situation. Mr. Munk has noted that gold sales reflect a changing world and we stand on the threshold of something new. These are some of the reason why it is not a question of whether it happens again. Instead the reality is that it has not passed.
What have we learnt from the crisis?
We learned adequate safeguards were missing. Self regulation is ineffective. The wrong incentives and mathematical models failed the system in stunning fashion. A bubble makes people irrational.
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